On Wednesday, the market opened lower and quickly recovered back to 5270 levels but failure to hold above 5270 in
the second half has pulled the market down to 5200 levels. The market has spent near about one hour around 5200
levels but it failed to breach 5200 level that may be the sign of non aggression on the lower side. However, we may
expect aggression in US markets as they are diverging negatively, which is a sign of likely shift/pause in the current
(bullish) trend and we feel that our markets will follow the move of US markets.
If we look at the broader trend then I can say that the market has formed lower top at 5340 as compare to 5399,
which it has formed at the beginning of the month and currently is trading at the lower boundary of the current
month which is at 5200/17330. In case today the market sustains below it then we may expect further sell off to the
lowest level of the month which is at 5160/17270, which is a trend decider level on a weekly basis and dismissal of the
same may invite liquidation of pending long positions with a final downside target 5000/16850. We may expect minor
support at 5125/17090.
On the higher side 5250/5255 (17530) may act as a resistance for the day but sustenance of the market above the same
may not be able lift the market beyond 5300/17690, which was gap down reversal level for the market
In brief, in the short term to medium term we cannot expect big upside in index and index based stocks, unless and
until world markets comes out with a positive outcome and the message is reduce trading long positions or buy few
put options with a view of hedging to long positions of the next month.
