POSITIONAL CALL :
BUY MARCH NIFTY @ 4840/- SL 4800/- TGT 4890/- OR
SELL @ 4880/- SL 4920/- TGT 4820/-
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
report as on 25/02/2010
The market is narrowing down the trading activity ahead of the major event that may lead to a huge swing on break
out or break down. One can clearly notice that even the RSI is also hovering above the rising trend line from last
three days that may increase sensitivity in the market in the near term.
For the day, may be due to strong global cues the market may open higher but it should sustain above 4885 levels till
the second half of the trading session. If it fails to do so, then we may expect further sideways movement for the day.
In case the market is able to hold the level 4885 till the second half of the trading session, then it result into heavy
short covering towards the end may be up to 4930/4950.
On the other side in case the market opens higher but if it fails to hold 4830 level in the second half of the trading
session then we may expect sharp sell off towards the end that may even break the level of 4800 and may quickly fall
to 4750 level
In brief, something wild is going to happen and instead of predicting which side? it is better to take the help of
Option instrument. The strategy should be to buy a Call and Put for next few days.
Nifty Strategy: Buy 4900 Call and Buy 4800 Put option for the month March for next few days.
out or break down. One can clearly notice that even the RSI is also hovering above the rising trend line from last
three days that may increase sensitivity in the market in the near term.
For the day, may be due to strong global cues the market may open higher but it should sustain above 4885 levels till
the second half of the trading session. If it fails to do so, then we may expect further sideways movement for the day.
In case the market is able to hold the level 4885 till the second half of the trading session, then it result into heavy
short covering towards the end may be up to 4930/4950.
On the other side in case the market opens higher but if it fails to hold 4830 level in the second half of the trading
session then we may expect sharp sell off towards the end that may even break the level of 4800 and may quickly fall
to 4750 level
In brief, something wild is going to happen and instead of predicting which side? it is better to take the help of
Option instrument. The strategy should be to buy a Call and Put for next few days.
Nifty Strategy: Buy 4900 Call and Buy 4800 Put option for the month March for next few days.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
report as on 24/02/2010
The Market opened lower to a given support level 4830 and bounced back to the hurdle 4885 but failed to survive
above the same in spite of several attempts during the day.
For the day the key level 4830/16150 may get broken at the beginning of the day due to weak global cues that may
lead to further weakness minimum up to 4750/15890 in the near term.
On the higher side the level 4830 and a equilibrium level 4845 may act as a major hurdle for the market. Failure to
breach these levels will invite further worries. In case the market survives above 4845/16200 in the second half of the
trading then it will have a positive impact, that may lift the market to again 4885/4920 levels.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty below 4830 with a tight stop loss at 4850 for the target 4750/4730. In case the market
sustains above 4845 in the second half of the trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a
target 4885/4920 and keep a final stop loss at 4820. In extreme case buy Nifty around 4730/15800 with a tight stop
loss below 4680 as the oversold recoveries are not ruled out from these levels.
above the same in spite of several attempts during the day.
For the day the key level 4830/16150 may get broken at the beginning of the day due to weak global cues that may
lead to further weakness minimum up to 4750/15890 in the near term.
On the higher side the level 4830 and a equilibrium level 4845 may act as a major hurdle for the market. Failure to
breach these levels will invite further worries. In case the market survives above 4845/16200 in the second half of the
trading then it will have a positive impact, that may lift the market to again 4885/4920 levels.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty below 4830 with a tight stop loss at 4850 for the target 4750/4730. In case the market
sustains above 4845 in the second half of the trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a
target 4885/4920 and keep a final stop loss at 4820. In extreme case buy Nifty around 4730/15800 with a tight stop
loss below 4680 as the oversold recoveries are not ruled out from these levels.
Monday, February 22, 2010
report as on 23/02/2010
NIFTY BUY @ 4830/- SL 4785/- TGT 4900/- OR
NIFTY SELL @4869/- SL 4910/- TGT 4800/-
NIFTY SELL @4869/- SL 4910/- TGT 4800/-
report as on 23/02/2010
Market wide open interest is seen at Rs. 1,24,128 cr. Nifty futures
continue to trade at par to the index with no change seen in open
interest. Rollover activity remains on the lower side in the index.
n Nifty Feb turnaround is seen at 4850 levels. Above 4790 the index trades
with a positive bias for upsides of 4950 odd levels. Upsides remain limited
from current levels. We advice holding long positions with SL places at
4790; below which panic selling can set in.
n Banking major SBIN continues to trade with a positive bias. Above 1900
the stock is expected to test 1950/1975 levels. ICICI bank also trades with
a positive bias. From the metal space, Ster is expected to test higher
levels in the near term. Tata Steel is expected to consolidate at current
levels.
n Wipro is expected to test 695 levels in the near term. Infosys is expected
to test 2620 levels in the near term. BPCL continues to trade with a
positive bias for 628 on the higher side.
n Nifty OI concentration is seen at 4700 put and 5000 call options. Call
writing is seen at 4925-4950 levels while put writing is seen only at 4650-
4700 levels.
The market opened higher with a huge gap but failed to breach an important resistance 4920 that has muted the
trading activity in the first half and turned into gradual sell off towards the end.
As the market is in the sideways consolidation, we can not expect trending move unless and until the market breaks
the given level in our previous updates (4955 and 4830). Between these levels we may see a time consuming activity.
In case the market sustains below the level 4830/16150 after an hour of trading then we may expect gradual sell off to
the level 4730/15840 with a minor hurdle at 4800/16060.
In case the market survives above Monday's lowest levels (4845/16190) till the second half of the trading session then
the market may again try to reach multi hurdle area 4920/30 with a minor hurdle at 4885.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty below 4830 with a tight stop loss at 4875 for the target 4770/4730. In case the market
sustains above 4845 in the second half of the trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a
target 4920 and keep a final stop loss at 4820.
continue to trade at par to the index with no change seen in open
interest. Rollover activity remains on the lower side in the index.
n Nifty Feb turnaround is seen at 4850 levels. Above 4790 the index trades
with a positive bias for upsides of 4950 odd levels. Upsides remain limited
from current levels. We advice holding long positions with SL places at
4790; below which panic selling can set in.
n Banking major SBIN continues to trade with a positive bias. Above 1900
the stock is expected to test 1950/1975 levels. ICICI bank also trades with
a positive bias. From the metal space, Ster is expected to test higher
levels in the near term. Tata Steel is expected to consolidate at current
levels.
n Wipro is expected to test 695 levels in the near term. Infosys is expected
to test 2620 levels in the near term. BPCL continues to trade with a
positive bias for 628 on the higher side.
n Nifty OI concentration is seen at 4700 put and 5000 call options. Call
writing is seen at 4925-4950 levels while put writing is seen only at 4650-
4700 levels.
The market opened higher with a huge gap but failed to breach an important resistance 4920 that has muted the
trading activity in the first half and turned into gradual sell off towards the end.
As the market is in the sideways consolidation, we can not expect trending move unless and until the market breaks
the given level in our previous updates (4955 and 4830). Between these levels we may see a time consuming activity.
In case the market sustains below the level 4830/16150 after an hour of trading then we may expect gradual sell off to
the level 4730/15840 with a minor hurdle at 4800/16060.
In case the market survives above Monday's lowest levels (4845/16190) till the second half of the trading session then
the market may again try to reach multi hurdle area 4920/30 with a minor hurdle at 4885.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty below 4830 with a tight stop loss at 4875 for the target 4770/4730. In case the market
sustains above 4845 in the second half of the trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a
target 4920 and keep a final stop loss at 4820.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
report as on 22/02/2010
NIFTY BUY @4850/- SL 4810/- TGT 4895/- OR
SHORT @ 4926/- SL 4966/- TGT 4875/-
SHORT @ 4926/- SL 4966/- TGT 4875/-
report as on 22/02/2010
The week past and expected
There was real battle between bulls and bears in the last week as both have struggled well to keep the market below the
losing levels (4955 and 4800) for them. The same trend we came across even in the world markets and that has resulted
into closing at an unchanged level on week on week basis (for markets).
For the week 4955/16570 and 4830/16160 levels may act as a major resistance and support for the market. The market
may continue its pull back if it holds the level of 4830 on a closing basis and sustenance of the market above 4955 may lift
the market to the 50% retracement level of the entire fall (between 5310-4675) to 5000/16720 level. In the
extraordinary case the market may even retrace to 60% of the entire fall which is at 5070/16970 level. As the bears will
loose the grip on the market above 4955 levels, it may help bulls to pull the market to 5070/16970.
On the lower side, the level of 4830 and thereafter 4800 may act as a major support for the market. Any daily closing
below 4830 may trigger fresh weakness that may push the market to minimum 4720/15820. Failure to hold these levels
may result in to sharp sell off may be up to 4580/15330 with a minor hurdle at 4675/15650.
As the events (Expiry of Feb month/ railway budget/Union Budget) are on the corner the market may remain highly volatile
and unpredictable. The strategy should be to trade as per directed levels without any specific bias.
There was real battle between bulls and bears in the last week as both have struggled well to keep the market below the
losing levels (4955 and 4800) for them. The same trend we came across even in the world markets and that has resulted
into closing at an unchanged level on week on week basis (for markets).
For the week 4955/16570 and 4830/16160 levels may act as a major resistance and support for the market. The market
may continue its pull back if it holds the level of 4830 on a closing basis and sustenance of the market above 4955 may lift
the market to the 50% retracement level of the entire fall (between 5310-4675) to 5000/16720 level. In the
extraordinary case the market may even retrace to 60% of the entire fall which is at 5070/16970 level. As the bears will
loose the grip on the market above 4955 levels, it may help bulls to pull the market to 5070/16970.
On the lower side, the level of 4830 and thereafter 4800 may act as a major support for the market. Any daily closing
below 4830 may trigger fresh weakness that may push the market to minimum 4720/15820. Failure to hold these levels
may result in to sharp sell off may be up to 4580/15330 with a minor hurdle at 4675/15650.
As the events (Expiry of Feb month/ railway budget/Union Budget) are on the corner the market may remain highly volatile
and unpredictable. The strategy should be to trade as per directed levels without any specific bias.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
report as on 19/02/2010
BUY NIFTY @ 4820/- SL 4780/- TGT 4870/- OR
SELL NIFTY @ 4865/- SL 4905/- TGT 4800/-
CMP {4840/-}
SELL NIFTY @ 4865/- SL 4905/- TGT 4800/-
CMP {4840/-}
report as on 19/02/2010
For the day the level of 4870/16280 may act as a major support for the market and sustenance below the same may
lead to gradual sell off towards the key level 4830/16160. Around these levels, some short covering is not ruled out.
However, if it fails to survive above 4830/16160 in the second half of the trading session may trigger fresh weakness
up to minimum level of 4740/4750 (15840).
In case the market survives above 4870 at the beginning then it may again try to reach 4935/4950 levels and
sustenance of the market in the second half above the same may lead to one more short covering rally to the level of
4990/5000.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty around 4925/4935 with a tight stop loss at 4960 and target of 4870. Sell Nifty below 4870
with a stop at 4900 and keep a target 4830/4800. In case the market sustains above 4950 in the second half of the
trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a target 5000 and stop loss at 4925.
lead to gradual sell off towards the key level 4830/16160. Around these levels, some short covering is not ruled out.
However, if it fails to survive above 4830/16160 in the second half of the trading session may trigger fresh weakness
up to minimum level of 4740/4750 (15840).
In case the market survives above 4870 at the beginning then it may again try to reach 4935/4950 levels and
sustenance of the market in the second half above the same may lead to one more short covering rally to the level of
4990/5000.
Nifty Strategy: Sell Nifty around 4925/4935 with a tight stop loss at 4960 and target of 4870. Sell Nifty below 4870
with a stop at 4900 and keep a target 4830/4800. In case the market sustains above 4950 in the second half of the
trading session then enter into short term trading buy in Nifty with a target 5000 and stop loss at 4925.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
report as on 18/02/2010
buy nifty @4872/- sl 4840/- tgt 4940/- OR
sell nifty @ 4940/- sl 4975/- tgt 4870/-
sell nifty @ 4940/- sl 4975/- tgt 4870/-
report as on 18/02/2010
The market opened higher but failed to surpass the level of 4930 successfully during the day. However at the same
time it has not broken an important support level 4885 in the second half of the trading session. The excess pull back
to the bear move and resiliency around major hurdle indicates at more complex trading activity for next few days.
Currently the market is near to its major hurdle 4920/30 (16470) above that it has next major resistance at 4955/16580
and at 5000/16730. In the extreme case we may expect the market to reach 50% of the entire fall but in case if it goes
higher then that means the market is not as bearish as the street is expecting.
On the lower side the market has several supports at each 20 points fall (4880/4860/4830) that may lead to gradual sell
off. Especially the level of 4830 may act as a major support as well as the trend decider level for the market. As per
overall formation the market should hold 4830/1616 level on a closing basis if the pull back is genuine but if it fails to
do so then the dip could be more severe.
time it has not broken an important support level 4885 in the second half of the trading session. The excess pull back
to the bear move and resiliency around major hurdle indicates at more complex trading activity for next few days.
Currently the market is near to its major hurdle 4920/30 (16470) above that it has next major resistance at 4955/16580
and at 5000/16730. In the extreme case we may expect the market to reach 50% of the entire fall but in case if it goes
higher then that means the market is not as bearish as the street is expecting.
On the lower side the market has several supports at each 20 points fall (4880/4860/4830) that may lead to gradual sell
off. Especially the level of 4830 may act as a major support as well as the trend decider level for the market. As per
overall formation the market should hold 4830/1616 level on a closing basis if the pull back is genuine but if it fails to
do so then the dip could be more severe.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
report as on 17/02/2010
positional call short nifty @ 4923/- sl 4965/- tgt 4840/-
BUY BANK NIFTY @ 8533/- SL 8490/- TGT 8625/-
BUY BANK NIFTY @ 8533/- SL 8490/- TGT 8625/-
report as on 17/02/2010
The market opened higher and after a mild dip, the market recovered back above the given level 4810. It was the
turning point for bulls when the market broke 4835 level in the second half of the trading session and rallied till 4885
levels. The recovery was sharper than expectation may be due to huge short covering above the same.
However, we can not forget that the medium term trend of the market is still "bearish" and currently what we are
observing is short term pull back move to the bear rally between 5310 and 4675. Today may be the testing day for
bears as around 4900/4920 (16470) levels the market will test the "inner strength" of bears. From these levels we may
expect one more round of profit taking or fresh initiation of short positions. Even the 20 days SMA may act as a
hurdle for the market and may help day traders to short with a short term view in mind.
Our advice is to be cautious around 4920/16470 levels while adding fresh long positions and any reversal from these
levels may again push the market down to 4840/16200 levels.
In case the market opens lower, then the level of 4800/16060 may act as a major support for the market and to move
upward it requires to sustenance above the same.
Nifty Strategy: Sell short around 4900/4920 with a final stop loss at 4956 and the target should be 4845 and 4835.
On the other side if the market opens lower then the strategy should be to buy around 4805/4795 with an upside
target 4845 and 4885 again. Keep a final stop loss below 4775. (spot levels and valid for the day only)
turning point for bulls when the market broke 4835 level in the second half of the trading session and rallied till 4885
levels. The recovery was sharper than expectation may be due to huge short covering above the same.
However, we can not forget that the medium term trend of the market is still "bearish" and currently what we are
observing is short term pull back move to the bear rally between 5310 and 4675. Today may be the testing day for
bears as around 4900/4920 (16470) levels the market will test the "inner strength" of bears. From these levels we may
expect one more round of profit taking or fresh initiation of short positions. Even the 20 days SMA may act as a
hurdle for the market and may help day traders to short with a short term view in mind.
Our advice is to be cautious around 4920/16470 levels while adding fresh long positions and any reversal from these
levels may again push the market down to 4840/16200 levels.
In case the market opens lower, then the level of 4800/16060 may act as a major support for the market and to move
upward it requires to sustenance above the same.
Nifty Strategy: Sell short around 4900/4920 with a final stop loss at 4956 and the target should be 4845 and 4835.
On the other side if the market opens lower then the strategy should be to buy around 4805/4795 with an upside
target 4845 and 4885 again. Keep a final stop loss below 4775. (spot levels and valid for the day only)
Monday, February 15, 2010
report as on 16/02/2010
On Monday the market opened higher but closed to nearing day's low, which was exactly opposite of the Thursday's
activity. However, the market has managed to sustain and close above 4770/80 levels, which was the minimal
requirement to continue the current pull back move for the market.
Today, in case the market trades below 4780 levels then the market may gradually fall to 4755 levels. But in case the
market sustains below the levels 4780 in the second half of the trading session then it may even fall to minimum 4710
levels in the near term.
On the higher side, the market has immediate resistance at 4810. If it sustains above the same then the market may
again try to recapture 4840/4845 levels. The market will remain positive if it sustains above 4845 in the second half of
the trading session.
Nifty Strategy: Sell short below 4775 with a final stop loss at 4810 and the target should be 4755 and 4710. On the
other side, if the market opens higher, then the strategy should be to buy above 4810 with an upside target 4845 and
4885. Keep a final stop loss at 4775.
activity. However, the market has managed to sustain and close above 4770/80 levels, which was the minimal
requirement to continue the current pull back move for the market.
Today, in case the market trades below 4780 levels then the market may gradually fall to 4755 levels. But in case the
market sustains below the levels 4780 in the second half of the trading session then it may even fall to minimum 4710
levels in the near term.
On the higher side, the market has immediate resistance at 4810. If it sustains above the same then the market may
again try to recapture 4840/4845 levels. The market will remain positive if it sustains above 4845 in the second half of
the trading session.
Nifty Strategy: Sell short below 4775 with a final stop loss at 4810 and the target should be 4755 and 4710. On the
other side, if the market opens higher, then the strategy should be to buy above 4810 with an upside target 4845 and
4885. Keep a final stop loss at 4775.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
report as on 15/02/2010
On Thursday the market opened up with a gap above previous closings and has maintained the positive momentum till end
of the session. Sustenance of the market above 4800/16065 level indicates short term strength, however, the medium
term trend is still negative and we may consider it as a pull back rally (exit opportunity) to the bear move between 5310
and 4675 levels.
The volume indicator is still below the daily average traded levels. The major oscillators like RSI and ROC are in the oversold
region but the positive divergence is still missing that means there is no change in existing (bearish) trend. On weekly basis
the market closed above the previous week's close may be due to extreme support of 40 weeks SMA. All this indicates that
short term rally is due but it will remain short lived. We may expect the market to reach 4900/4920 (16470) maximum on
the higher side if it sustains above the level 4840 during week. In case the market sustains below the level 4840 then it
may slide to 4780/15990 minimum on the lower side.
Sustenance of the market below 4780 level during the week may lead to continuation of the weakness and in that case
we may expect quick sell off to 4600/4580 (15330) levels. These levels seem to be achievable in the near term as many
index components (stocks) are supporting the same.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty between 4800/4795 with an immediate target 4840 on the higher side. Keep a final stop loss
at 4770 for the same. In case the market opens higher and moves to 4840 levels then the strategy should be to sell short
between 4830 and 40 with a tight stop loss at 4860. In the second half of the trading session 4840 and 4780 levels may
act as a crucial trend decider levels. Sell short if it trades below 4780 and trade long if it sustains above 4840 in the second
half of the trading session.
of the session. Sustenance of the market above 4800/16065 level indicates short term strength, however, the medium
term trend is still negative and we may consider it as a pull back rally (exit opportunity) to the bear move between 5310
and 4675 levels.
The volume indicator is still below the daily average traded levels. The major oscillators like RSI and ROC are in the oversold
region but the positive divergence is still missing that means there is no change in existing (bearish) trend. On weekly basis
the market closed above the previous week's close may be due to extreme support of 40 weeks SMA. All this indicates that
short term rally is due but it will remain short lived. We may expect the market to reach 4900/4920 (16470) maximum on
the higher side if it sustains above the level 4840 during week. In case the market sustains below the level 4840 then it
may slide to 4780/15990 minimum on the lower side.
Sustenance of the market below 4780 level during the week may lead to continuation of the weakness and in that case
we may expect quick sell off to 4600/4580 (15330) levels. These levels seem to be achievable in the near term as many
index components (stocks) are supporting the same.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty between 4800/4795 with an immediate target 4840 on the higher side. Keep a final stop loss
at 4770 for the same. In case the market opens higher and moves to 4840 levels then the strategy should be to sell short
between 4830 and 40 with a tight stop loss at 4860. In the second half of the trading session 4840 and 4780 levels may
act as a crucial trend decider levels. Sell short if it trades below 4780 and trade long if it sustains above 4840 in the second
half of the trading session.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
report as on 11/02/2010
The market opened higher but quickly came under profit taking. It has taken an intra day support at 4750 however; it
failed to breach an intra day highest levels 4827 (gap down levels), that has turned the sentiment down towards the
end. As the market failed to breach 4827 level twice a time during the day it seems that the supply is still on 4820/
40 levels.
Today, it may be possible that the market may try to retest 4840/16140 levels during the day and failure to hold will
lead to sharp sell off. On the lower side the market has major support in the region 4710/15750.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty between 4715/4705 with an immediate target 4810 on the higher side. Keep a final stop loss
at 4680 for the same. In case the market opens higher and moves to 4830 levels then the strategy should be to sell
short between 4830 and 40 with a tight stop loss at 4860 as on the lower side the market may even fall to previous
lows 4675.
failed to breach an intra day highest levels 4827 (gap down levels), that has turned the sentiment down towards the
end. As the market failed to breach 4827 level twice a time during the day it seems that the supply is still on 4820/
40 levels.
Today, it may be possible that the market may try to retest 4840/16140 levels during the day and failure to hold will
lead to sharp sell off. On the lower side the market has major support in the region 4710/15750.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty between 4715/4705 with an immediate target 4810 on the higher side. Keep a final stop loss
at 4680 for the same. In case the market opens higher and moves to 4830 levels then the strategy should be to sell
short between 4830 and 40 with a tight stop loss at 4860 as on the lower side the market may even fall to previous
lows 4675.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
report as on 09/02/2010
The market has continued its pull back on Tuesday with a day's low of 4735 and it has even respected the level of 4810
as per technical analysis towards the end. It closed just below the continuation gap which is at 4827. Above the level
of 4800, the market has several hurdles and may be tough for bull traders to trade. They may use gap up opening as
to take profits on trading positions and may react themselves in the second half of the trading session.
For the day we will keep a watch on 4840/16140 level and sustenance of the market above the same in the second half
of the trading session will lead to one more rally up to 4880/4890. Expect weakness in the market if it sustains below
the level 4755 in the second half of the trading session as it may push the market to previous lows 4670. Trade with
strict stop losses at each level as the coming trend seems to be sharper than expectations.
Market wide open interest is seen at Rs. 1,14,735 cr. Nifty futures have
seen significant closure in open interest with premium reducing to near
flat.
n Nifty continues to trade in negative territory below 4850 levels hence
overall aggression on the long side should be kept low. The recent low
made at 4760 remains significant with buying advised at 4700-4750 levels
for initial target of 4850. Immediate resistance for the index is seen at
4830.
n Banking majors are expected to trade with a positive bias in the near
term led by SBIN and ICICI Bank. RelInfra is expected to test 1115 levels in
the near term. Bharti is expected to consolidate around 312 levels with
buying advised at lower levels for a higher target of 344. We expect
metal majors to under perform in the near term. Reliance too is expected
to remain under selling pressure.
n Nifty OI concentration is seen at 4700 put and 5000 call options. Call
writing is seen at 5000 levels. In case of put options writing aggression is
seen at 4600 options
as per technical analysis towards the end. It closed just below the continuation gap which is at 4827. Above the level
of 4800, the market has several hurdles and may be tough for bull traders to trade. They may use gap up opening as
to take profits on trading positions and may react themselves in the second half of the trading session.
For the day we will keep a watch on 4840/16140 level and sustenance of the market above the same in the second half
of the trading session will lead to one more rally up to 4880/4890. Expect weakness in the market if it sustains below
the level 4755 in the second half of the trading session as it may push the market to previous lows 4670. Trade with
strict stop losses at each level as the coming trend seems to be sharper than expectations.
Market wide open interest is seen at Rs. 1,14,735 cr. Nifty futures have
seen significant closure in open interest with premium reducing to near
flat.
n Nifty continues to trade in negative territory below 4850 levels hence
overall aggression on the long side should be kept low. The recent low
made at 4760 remains significant with buying advised at 4700-4750 levels
for initial target of 4850. Immediate resistance for the index is seen at
4830.
n Banking majors are expected to trade with a positive bias in the near
term led by SBIN and ICICI Bank. RelInfra is expected to test 1115 levels in
the near term. Bharti is expected to consolidate around 312 levels with
buying advised at lower levels for a higher target of 344. We expect
metal majors to under perform in the near term. Reliance too is expected
to remain under selling pressure.
n Nifty OI concentration is seen at 4700 put and 5000 call options. Call
writing is seen at 5000 levels. In case of put options writing aggression is
seen at 4600 options
Monday, February 8, 2010
report as on 09/02/2010
The market was volatile through out the day on Monday that may be an indication of short term reversal pattern and
may support bullish traders if it sustains above the level 4735/15870. However, we may consider it as a pull back rally
and will try to trade into as per the major levels of the market.
In case if it sustains above the level 4735 then the first hurdle comes at 4785/16000 and the next best hurdle is at 4820/
16145. Over extended pull back may lift the market to 4880/4885 (16350) levels. On the downward side the level
4735 may act as a short term trend decider level and may keep the sentiment muted below the same. Then we may
expect the market to trade between 4660 and 4735.
SESA GOA
PRICE: RS.362 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.400
may support bullish traders if it sustains above the level 4735/15870. However, we may consider it as a pull back rally
and will try to trade into as per the major levels of the market.
In case if it sustains above the level 4735 then the first hurdle comes at 4785/16000 and the next best hurdle is at 4820/
16145. Over extended pull back may lift the market to 4880/4885 (16350) levels. On the downward side the level
4735 may act as a short term trend decider level and may keep the sentiment muted below the same. Then we may
expect the market to trade between 4660 and 4735.
SESA GOA
PRICE: RS.362 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.400
Sunday, February 7, 2010
report as on 08/02/2010
The week past and expected
Technically speaking: In the last week the market has fallen to the lowest level of the support lists 4692/15725, which
is nearly 80% erosion of the entire rise between 4539 (intermediate support) and 5310 (highest level of the current rally)
that may be an indication of short term over sold nature of the market. Second, the market is nearing to its psychological
support area 4650/15580 (200 days SMA), that may invite side line investors to park few funds around the same with a
long term view.
Both these observations may help the market to stabilize at least for the short term and may result in to short term pull
back (rally) if technically the market sustains above the level 4690 for next few days. On the higher side we may expect
pull back up to 4830/16200 levels as to beat these levels markets requires strong positive news flow. Any reversal activity
from these levels will be an opportunity to sell short with a downward target 4600/4550 minimum. In case some thing
really comes positive then the short term pull back may extend to upper boundary of the distribution zone to 4930/50
(16500). Be cautious at higher levels.
LIC HOUSING FINANCE
PRICE: RS.752 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.930 FY11E P/E: 9.2X; P/ABV: 1.8X
q Strong traction in mortgaged loans likely to continue; we maintain our
advances growth estimate at 30% yoy in FY10 and 25% yoy in FY11
q Further improvement in NIM likely; re-pricing of high cost borrowings
during Q4FY10
q Glitch in asset quality performance during Q3FY10 was largely technical
in nature and is expected to be corrected in Q4FY10.
q We maintain our earnings estimates for LIC HF and recommend to Buy
the stock with a 12-month price target of Rs.930. At the current levels our
target price offers an attractive 24% upside.
Strong traction in mortgaged loans likely to continue; we maintain
our advances growth estimate at 30% yoy in FY10 and 25%
yoy in FY11
n Improving macroeconomic scenario and revival in retail demand will led to strong
traction in the mortgage finance business. India has relatively lower mortgage
penetration at ~6% of GDP, thus provides a broader landscape for mortgage finance
players.
n LICHF reported a robust growth of 85% yoy in disbursement to Rs.36.0bn and
72% yoy growth in sanction to Rs.45.2bn. For 9MFY10 sanctions grew by 34%
yoy to Rs.99bn and disbursements grew by 74% yoy to Rs.98bn.
n LICHF reported a strong growth of 35% yoy in its mortgage loans during 9MFY10
to Rs.341.7bn, in the backdrop of whopping 74% yoy growth in disbursement.
We opine that the strong mortgage loan growth trend is likely to continue during
the Q4FY10 as well, in the backdrop of improving demand for real estate from
the retail segment
Technically speaking: In the last week the market has fallen to the lowest level of the support lists 4692/15725, which
is nearly 80% erosion of the entire rise between 4539 (intermediate support) and 5310 (highest level of the current rally)
that may be an indication of short term over sold nature of the market. Second, the market is nearing to its psychological
support area 4650/15580 (200 days SMA), that may invite side line investors to park few funds around the same with a
long term view.
Both these observations may help the market to stabilize at least for the short term and may result in to short term pull
back (rally) if technically the market sustains above the level 4690 for next few days. On the higher side we may expect
pull back up to 4830/16200 levels as to beat these levels markets requires strong positive news flow. Any reversal activity
from these levels will be an opportunity to sell short with a downward target 4600/4550 minimum. In case some thing
really comes positive then the short term pull back may extend to upper boundary of the distribution zone to 4930/50
(16500). Be cautious at higher levels.
LIC HOUSING FINANCE
PRICE: RS.752 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.930 FY11E P/E: 9.2X; P/ABV: 1.8X
q Strong traction in mortgaged loans likely to continue; we maintain our
advances growth estimate at 30% yoy in FY10 and 25% yoy in FY11
q Further improvement in NIM likely; re-pricing of high cost borrowings
during Q4FY10
q Glitch in asset quality performance during Q3FY10 was largely technical
in nature and is expected to be corrected in Q4FY10.
q We maintain our earnings estimates for LIC HF and recommend to Buy
the stock with a 12-month price target of Rs.930. At the current levels our
target price offers an attractive 24% upside.
Strong traction in mortgaged loans likely to continue; we maintain
our advances growth estimate at 30% yoy in FY10 and 25%
yoy in FY11
n Improving macroeconomic scenario and revival in retail demand will led to strong
traction in the mortgage finance business. India has relatively lower mortgage
penetration at ~6% of GDP, thus provides a broader landscape for mortgage finance
players.
n LICHF reported a robust growth of 85% yoy in disbursement to Rs.36.0bn and
72% yoy growth in sanction to Rs.45.2bn. For 9MFY10 sanctions grew by 34%
yoy to Rs.99bn and disbursements grew by 74% yoy to Rs.98bn.
n LICHF reported a strong growth of 35% yoy in its mortgage loans during 9MFY10
to Rs.341.7bn, in the backdrop of whopping 74% yoy growth in disbursement.
We opine that the strong mortgage loan growth trend is likely to continue during
the Q4FY10 as well, in the backdrop of improving demand for real estate from
the retail segment
Thursday, February 4, 2010
report as on 05/02/2010
On Thursday the level of 4885 acted as a major hurdle for the market as sustenance below the same in the second half
has turned down the sentiment extremely weak. The recovery from the lowest level 4765 was improper as it failed to
retrace 38.20% of the current fall and closed on Thursday to the lowest range of the short term distribution pattern at
4820/4830 (16130).
As the global cues are weak the gap down opening is certain to the next major support 4700/15870. In case the
market fails to respect these levels then the sell off may extend till 4535/15330 in the near term (intermediate support
level). Any revival should be use to increase cash levels in the portfolio and at each resistance levels add put options
with a medium term view.
has turned down the sentiment extremely weak. The recovery from the lowest level 4765 was improper as it failed to
retrace 38.20% of the current fall and closed on Thursday to the lowest range of the short term distribution pattern at
4820/4830 (16130).
As the global cues are weak the gap down opening is certain to the next major support 4700/15870. In case the
market fails to respect these levels then the sell off may extend till 4535/15330 in the near term (intermediate support
level). Any revival should be use to increase cash levels in the portfolio and at each resistance levels add put options
with a medium term view.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
report as on 04/02/2010
Currently the market is in down trend and in that it is in a corrective wave that will keep the trend more volatile and
will not respect levels time-wise. Our analysis suggests us that the market has opened broader trading range between
4800/4820 and 4950/4970. It seems that the market will oscillate between these levels for next few sessions before
falling further.
For the day the level of 4890/16370 may act as a major support for the market and on the higher side there are several
hurdles for the market like 4950, 4970 and 4985 that may keep the sentiment subdued.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty (as per spot) around 4895/4900 levels with a stop loss at 4878 and keep a target of 4950 and
4970. Selling is advisable around 4965/70 with a tight stop loss above 4997 and keep a target of 4895 and 4865. In
the second half, in case the market sustains below 4885 then selling is advisable with a stop loss at 4930 and the
target would be again 4830/4820.
will not respect levels time-wise. Our analysis suggests us that the market has opened broader trading range between
4800/4820 and 4950/4970. It seems that the market will oscillate between these levels for next few sessions before
falling further.
For the day the level of 4890/16370 may act as a major support for the market and on the higher side there are several
hurdles for the market like 4950, 4970 and 4985 that may keep the sentiment subdued.
Nifty Strategy: Buy Nifty (as per spot) around 4895/4900 levels with a stop loss at 4878 and keep a target of 4950 and
4970. Selling is advisable around 4965/70 with a tight stop loss above 4997 and keep a target of 4895 and 4865. In
the second half, in case the market sustains below 4885 then selling is advisable with a stop loss at 4930 and the
target would be again 4830/4820.
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