GOLD (Futures): The commodity weakened and closed lower the past following its price failure at the 1,169.70 level, its 2010 high. However, our broader bias on Gold remains higher while it holds above its long-term rising trendline at 1,100.81. We see that level capping declines if a follow through lower on its Friday losses occurs as we enter a new week. This should bring a break above the 1,144.88 level, its Mar 01’10 high and the 1,169.70 level, its 2010 high picture back on the table. On a loss of the latter, further upside risk will shape up towards its psychological level at 1,200 and next its 2009 high at 1,226. The threat to this view will be a decisive break and close below the 1,100.81 level, its LT rising trendline. If that occurs, the commodity will trigger a return to its Mar low at 1,085.03 and next its 2010 low at 1.044.20. Overall, while Gold holds above the 1,100.81 level, we expect it
Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday and below the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing is the next upside target.
Silver closed sharply lower on Friday testing support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signalling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends this rally, the 87% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing is the next upside target.
Crude Oil closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
